Smaller political
parties, with the potential to earn between 10 and 15% of the vote, are set
to play a crucial role in shaping the new majority. Those with 20% and above
will have the power to influence the cadence of coalition arrangements,
empowering them to shape the future of South Africa’s political landscape. 

Unless
there are drastic institutional changes in the ANC, the projections of it
polling below 40% overall in the 2026 local government elections and below 30%
in the national and provincial elections are not far-fetched. The
disintegration of a political centre will continue, with serious ramifications
for the compromised national command and control. 

 

Consolidating
a multiparty democratic order with diffuse nodes of influence would require a
personality to hold these nodes together. It is no secret that the GNU, at its
establishment and arguably to date, is held together by a consensus on
President Ramaphosa as the personality around whom everyone wants to pivot. The
fragility of the GNU is centred around the tolerance, accommodation, and
acceptance of Ramaphosa’s unique consensus-seeking leadership style. 

 

The
current coalition arrangements are based on the consensus of a non-racial
establishment deep in the endeavour to create political stability that does not
disrupt the post-1996 status quo or constitutional order. Political parties in
Parliament and wannabes outside the system will henceforth be beholden to the
personalities they proffer as a leadership value proposition to the
nation. Who parties ultimately select as a candidate will determine how it performs.

 

Anyone
harbouring ambitions of being President of the Republic is faced with the dual
task of surviving their party’s internal filtration systems or succession battles.
They must be convincing to voters beyond their party’s membership. The criteria
will include what the economic establishment promotes about such personalities
and how the voters react to a manufactured mob’s consent. 

The
modelling of the type of leader South Africa is ready to embrace began with
what it will not accept. This was sufficiently choreographed for all wannabes
to benchmark themselves. The political party’s brand power has been recalibrated
as a factor with a weighting below 30%. Dysfunctions in how government has
been run have successfully been made a party brand issue to the point where
party leaders have become separable from the parties they lead. 

 

In some instances,
political leaders with the most social and political capital were privatised to
become properties of legacy-protecting foundations capable of distancing the
leader’s legacy from any ascendant disrepute emanating from successor leaders.
It has been progressively difficult for political parties carrying the moral
and ethical, including intellectual legacies of past leaders, to invoke them as
a way of cleansing themselves from their current dysfunctions. The past has become a
distinct brand personality from the unfolding present to levels where members vie
for distinguishability; we are this leader’s cohort, is a standard nomenclature in
party forums.

 

Personality brand equity is set to become a significant factor in political competition for voter support in.
Political parties must contend with this tradeable commodity to win the
ultimate prize of politics: government. Civil society movements, aiming to
remain politically unattached, will become crucial vote-harvesting
constituencies, engaging in policy concessions outside party political
hegemony. 

 

The
significance of strategic think tanks and branded individuals has increased in
political influence and equity since the 2016 local government elections.
Church pulpits and social purpose-driven platforms have become more vital to
politicians than their party-specific platforms. The spectacle of filling
stadiums to create illusions of greatness will become more prominent than the
content delivered within them. 

 

Without
the support of an ethically flawless personality, which, although rare, is
difficult to find, no political party can garner the same majority voter
support as brand equity-based parties did in the past. There exists a group of
new, ethically acceptable personalities, known to society but outside
mainstream politics, who have the power to influence electoral outcomes through
their associations. These gather at the seams, waiting for
personality-driven change movements to organise them into a formidable unit of
significant influence.

The
tenure of historically earned political capital is undeniably limited. Never in
the history of political contestation for state power has the conduct of
political leadership across all levels of government, including appointed
officials, caused so much harm to the vocation of politics and arguably to
public service. As the pre-2016 advantage of political parties based on size
and scale wanes, smaller political parties and single-issue movements like
anti-corruption are poised to benefit. This is known as the recalibration of
who or what constitutes the majority. The writing is on the proverbial wall.